Iowa may be heading toward a classic Midwest Thanksgiving, complete with dropping temperatures, strong winds, and a round of snow that could complicate one of the busiest travel periods of the year.
Early projections from long-range forecasters suggest that the state is in line for a storm system expected to move through during Thanksgiving week, bringing a shift from rain to accumulating snow.
Although the holiday is still days away and the forecast may shift as models update, meteorologists say the current outlook is strong enough for travelers to start preparing for potentially rough conditions.
AccuWeather’s long-range team expects much of Iowa to pick up new snowfall around Thanksgiving. The exact totals remain uncertain, but meteorologists anticipate several inches statewide, with the northwest corner of Iowa most likely to see the highest amounts.
Whether the numbers climb toward double digits will depend on how the system evolves, but forecasters say there is enough confidence to alert residents about meaningful accumulation.
The storm is expected to track across the Midwest during the lead-up to the holiday, and senior AccuWeather meteorologist Chad Merrill said the trouble will begin with rain.
Iowa will start on the warmer side of the system, but temperatures will fall sharply as the storm passes. By Thanksgiving Day and the following Friday, colder air arriving behind the storm will turn that rain into snow. That transition will also come with gusty winds, creating a setup for both slick roads and blowing snow.
Merrill noted that the type of snow will shift as the system moves through. Early snowfall is likely to be wet and heavy, which can weigh down trees and power lines.
As temperatures drop further, the snow will lose moisture and become lighter, which increases the risk of drifting and reduces visibility on open roads.
The possibility of a Thanksgiving week blizzard is not off the table, but meteorologists say it is too soon to make that call.
To meet the National Weather Service definition of a blizzard, a storm must combine falling or blowing snow with sustained winds of at least 35 miles per hour and visibility reduced to a quarter mile or less for three consecutive hours.
Those conditions are difficult to predict more than a week in advance, though forecasters agree the ingredients could come together if the storm strengthens.
Even without full blizzard criteria, the mix of snow, falling temperatures, and strong winds could be enough to disrupt holiday plans. Anyone driving or flying through Iowa around Thanksgiving should brace for delays.
Road crews may have to work quickly to keep major routes clear, and travelers should allow extra time in case of cancellations or slow traffic.
The cold air trailing the system will bring its own challenges. AccuWeather expects temperatures to run 6 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages.
In Des Moines, where the typical daytime high sits near 41 degrees at this time of year, residents may see readings drop into the 20s. Highs around the state will hover close to freezing, and nighttime lows could sink into the midteens.
The combination of wind and cold could also push real-feel temperatures much lower than the thermometer suggests. Merrill said the incoming air mass is likely to be the coldest Iowa has experienced so far this season.
Gusty winds may trigger scattered power outages, especially in areas where early wet snow clings to branches and lines before drying out.
With millions of Americans expected to travel for Thanksgiving and Iowa sitting squarely in the path of the approaching system, forecasters recommend keeping a close eye on updates as the holiday approaches.
Weather patterns can shift quickly, but early signs point to a Thanksgiving week that looks and feels like winter across the state.
For Iowans, the pattern is familiar. Snow around a major holiday is hardly unusual, and early winter storms are part of the region’s seasonal rhythm.
Still, the timing could create headaches for travelers eager to reach family gatherings. Whether the storm brings a few inches of snow or pushes toward more disruptive totals, the message from meteorologists is the same: prepare for cold, plan for delays, and expect travel conditions to worsen as Thanksgiving week unfolds.